A new National Academies report analyzes cost, adoption, and emission implications for plug-in hybrids in comparison to hybrids.

This report considers two vehicles. One, the PHEV-10, uses plug-hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) technology similar to that used in the Toyota Prius Plug-in. However, it has a larger battery than an HEV to allow 10 miles of driving powered by electricity only and a gasoline engine that drives the wheels in parallel with the electric motor when power demand is high or the batteries are discharged. The other vehicle, the PHEV-40, is similar to the Chevrolet Volt. It has a 40-mile electric range, a larger electric motor, and a much larger battery than the PHEV-10.

The cost to the manufacturer of producing the first generation of the PHEV-10 (2010–2012) is expected to be about $6,300 more than that of the equivalent conventional midsize car (non-hybrid), including $3,300 for the battery pack. Similarly, the PHEV-40 with a $14,000 battery pack would cost about $18,100 more. These cost differences would be smaller if the PHEVs were compared to equivalent HEVs, but the fuel savings would be smaller.

Unlike semiconductors, fast drops in energy storage cost are not expected. The study did not appear to consider greater range with less battery cost due to significant drops in vehicle weight due to new designs and materials.

PHEVs show less improvement in GHG emissions than in gasoline consumption because of the additional emissions from electricity generation. The report did not appear to consider significant future cost decreases in renewables, nor RPS mandates in 30 states.

Assembled battery packs currently cost about $1,700/kWh of usable energy. A PHEV-10 will require about 2.0 kWh and a PHEV-40 about 8 kWh even after the batteries have undergone expected degradation over time. Costs are expected to decline by about 35 percent by 2020 but more slowly thereafter.

Should gasoline stay under $4 per gallon, the report does not expect PHEV-40 to be cost-effective until 2040 and PHEV-10 until 2028.

Thirteen to 40 million PHEV out of 300 million total vehicles are projected to be on the U.S. roads by 2030 under different scenarios. In other words, the report forecasts more gasoline burning vehicles that at present.

Even at 40 million, the grid is expected to easily support the plug-in electric cars if they are charged at night.

You can download a free 29 page summary of the Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies–Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles or purchase the $28 report.

National Academies Predicts 13 to 40 Million Plug-ins by 2030 is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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By John Addison reporting from the LA Auto Show (12/4/09, updated 12/15/09)

Electric cars and hybrid cars are prominent here at the LA Auto Show. GM highlighted big plans for the Chevy Volt. Toyota, owning some 65 percent of the U.S. hybrid market, displayed the Prius Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle (PHV) along with a growing family  Toyota and Lexus hybrids. The Volt will have triple the electric range of the PHV. Toyota may have a $10,000 price advantage over the Volt.

For extended driving, the Toyota plug-in will normally blend power from the 1.8L gasoline engine and from the 60kW electric motor, just as the Prius does now. The Volt, however, is powered purely with its electric drive system, with a  one liter gasoline engine configured in series to act as a generator. Although series designs have been used for years, GM insists that the Volt is in a unique category – the extended range electric vehicle (EREV). What may be unique is consumer confusion. Clean Fleet Report refers to both the Volt and Prius Plug-in as plug-in hybrids.

In 2010, Toyota will put 500 PHV into fleet tests with car sharing services, corporate and government fleets, and some individuals; 150 will be in the United States. At first glance, these PHV look identical to the 2010 Prius. The Prius Plug-in however use lithium-ion batteries instead of the NiMH batteries of the Prius. The PHV can travel 14 miles in electric range at up to 60 miles per hour. The Prius Plug-in 5kWh Panasonic lithium-ion batteries can be recharged in 1.5 hours with 220 volts.  Three different pack configurations will be tested.

The Volt will have a 40 mile electric range; triple that of the Prius Plug-in. The Volt has a 16kWh battery pack being jointly developed by GM with LG Chem. A 220 volt recharge may take 4 hours. GM 16 kWh hours may add $10,000 to the vehicle cost over Toyota’s 5 kWh hours. Neither automaker has announced sale prices or lease rates.

Both automakers will first emphasize the California market. Most of the nation’s 40,000 electric vehicles are now on the road in California, a state with zero-emission vehicle mandates and greenhouse gas cap-and-trade being implemented.

GM has produced 80 Volt prototypes so far. In late 2010, Chevrolet starts taking orders for the Volt. In his keynote speech, GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz estimated 2011 Volt deliveries at 8,000. Early in 2011, 400 Volts will be put into 2 year tests similar to GM’s successful Project Driveway that placed 100 Equinox Fuel Cell vehicles. Four utility partners will deploy 100 Volts each: Southern California Edison, Sacramento Public Utility District, Pacific Gas and Electric, and the Electric Power Research Institute. In parallel with these tests will be dealer sales to consumers and fleets.

These utilities and EPRI have worked closely with automakers to establish the new smart charging standard J1772. They have tested V2G, which will someday allow customers to sell power from the vehicle batteries at peak hours. All utilities have expressed interest in repurposing the lithium batteries in utility applications after 10 years of use in autos.

Plug-in hybrids will more aggressively use batteries than hybrids. Bob Lutz expressed confidence in a 10 year life for Volt batteries; he said the will use an 80/30 charge discharge cycle.

Premium Hybrids

The initial plug-in market share battle will extend up and down the product line of both automakers. Lexus currently offers four hybrid models; two have such good fuel economy that they are part of the Clean Fleet Report Top 10 Hybrids.

In the luxury model, GM may offer the Cadillac Converj plug-in hybrid to leapfrog Lexus. Converj is a concept car with breathtaking design; it has attracted cars at auto shows. The roomy luxury coupe would utilize the Volt drive system.

As competition gets interesting between Toyota and GM, they will have dozens of competitors to worry about. Nissan is actively promoting its battery-electric Leaf. Ford will be offering several models of battery-electric and plug-in hybrid.

What is Next?

Jim Lentz, TMS president, said, “Toyota’s hybrid leadership will continue to expand in the U.S. and around the globe. With 10 new hybrid models between now and 2012 in various global markets, we plan to sell one million gas-electric hybrids per year, worldwide, sometime early in the next decade.”

Toyota has announced that it wants all of its cars to have a hybrid option by 2020. Ford wants the hybrid option for 90 percent of its cars much sooner. Competition will force Toyota to keep moving forward.

Toyota will start volume manufacturing of the Plug-in Prius in 2011. 2012 manufacturing of 20,000 to 30,000 Prius Plug-ins are expected. Toyota has not yet finalized pricing. With only a 5kWh battery, Toyota will significantly under price the Chevy Volt.

In 2012, Toyota will also start selling the less expensive 2-door FT-EV, a pure battery electric vehicle. This little car will probably be similar to the IQ concept car that it has shown for a few years. In the U.S. in 2012 Toyota will face intense EV competition with Nissan, Ford, and dozens of innovative younger companies such as Tesla.

The customer will be the winner in the battle for electric car market share.

Top 10 Electric Car Makers

Toyota and GM Fight for Plug-in Market is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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By John Addison (11/17/09)

Over 1,000,000 Hybrids in U.S.

Toyota Motor Corporation continues to dominate the global market for hybrid cars with its Toyota and Lexus brands. Last March, Toyota became the only car maker to have sold over one million hybrids in the United States. Hybrid sales are pushing 10 percent in Japan and even higher in some U.S. cities.

In our recent survey, Toyota captured four of the Top 10 Hybrids with Best MPG.

Toyota Prius continues to lead hybrid cars in fuel economy and lowest lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. This perennial favorite midsize 4-door hatchback delivers 50 miles per gallon (mpg) and is lowest on the list with 3.7 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent for the EPA annual driving cycle. Yes, 3.7 tons of CO2e is a lot; but many cars, light trucks, and SUVs create three times that emission; to get lower emissions you would need a plug-in car. The hatchback design allows for more cargo, especially if you drop part or all of the 60/40 back bench seat.

Lexus HS 250h is a stylish compact 4-seat sedan that delivers 35 mpg and 5.3 tons of CO2e per year. The Lexus brand lets your friends know that are using less petroleum by choice; you can afford a bit of luxury.

Toyota Camry Hybrid delivers good mileage for a midsize with an automatic transmission. The EPA rating is 5.4 tons of CO2e for the EPA annual driving cycle and a combined 34 mpg.

Lexus RX 450h with more acceleration and room than the others, costs more, starting at over $42,000. For a powerful SUV, it still conserves with 30 mpg and 6.1 tons of CO2e. Haul 5 people and lots of stuff without sacrificing quality and styling in the RX450h. The all wheel drive version has slightly better mileage than the Ford Escape Hybrid 4WD.

Some Toyota offerings are more about performance or image, than about great mileage. The Toyota Highlander Hybrid also sells well with those who want a midsized SUV with either 2WD or 4WD. LS 600h L luxury hybrid sedan, is the world’s first vehicle to feature a full-hybrid V8 powertrain.
What is Next?

Jim Lentz, TMS president, said, “Toyota’s hybrid leadership will continue to expand in the U.S. and around the globe. With 10 new hybrid models between now and 2012 in various global markets, we plan to sell one million gas-electric hybrids per year, worldwide, sometime early in the next decade.”

Toyota has announced that it wants all of its cars to have a hybrid option by 2020. Ford wants the hybrid option for 90 percent of its cars much sooner. Competition will force Toyota to keep moving forward.

The Toyota Auris will be offered next year in Japan with better mileage than the Prius. It is expected to be a compact hybrid.

A Toyota Yaris with better mileage than the larger Prius has been long rumored for the U.S.

We continue to hear rumors of a larger Prius in the form of a crossover, wagon, or SUV. Behind this rumor may be a debate within Toyota to establish Prius as an independent brand, as Toyota Motor Corporation has done with Lexus and Scion.

In demonstrating what might be in our future, LF-Ch concept hybrid vehicle from Lexus offers dramatic style and premium features. If you have multiple drivers in your household, one could drive the LF-Ch for fuel economy while the other could be out playing Grand Prix with this sporty five-door. A drive mode-switch allows the driver to select between four modes: Normal, Eco, EV, plus a Sport mode that amplifies throttle response for the most enthusiastic drivers.

Toyota Plug-in Prius Sales will Jump in 2012

Toyota will start volume manufacturing of the Plug-in Prius in 2012 according to Reuters. 2012 manufacturing of 20,000 to 30,000 Toyota Prius PHEV are expected. Toyota has not yet finalized 2012 pricing. Full featured models may be priced from $40,000 to $50,000 and be competitive with the Chevy Volt in the U.S., Ford’s PHEV offerings, and the Mitsubishi EV in Japan. The added lithium batteries in the plug-in version of the Prius will make it priced much higher than the hybrid Prius.

Toyota is currently leasing 500 plug-in Priuses in Japan and the United States in fleet demonstrations. Smart grid charging will be an important part of U.S. demonstrations. The plug-in is a cautious step forward, with a freeway-speed electric range of only 12 miles before the engine is engaged.

Dr. Andy Frank, the father of plug-in hybrids, had lunch with me this week at GreenBeat 2009. He thinks that Toyota is smart to lower the cost of the Plug-in Prius by only using 5 kWh of lithium batteries, even though it limits the EV range. GM may have an added $10,000 per vehicle cost over Toyota by using 16kWh in the Chevy Volt, although that cost differential is moderated with a $7,500 tax credit for using 16kWh.

Toyota will place ten Prius plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with Xcel Energy’s SmartGridCity™ project in Boulder, Colorado. The vehicles will be the focus of an interdisciplinary research project coordinated by the University of Colorado at Boulder Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute (RASEI), a new joint venture between the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the University of Colorado at Boulder.

The vehicle’s first-generation lithium-ion battery will be built on a dedicated PEVE (Panasonic EV Energy Company, LTD) assembly line. PEVE is a joint-venture in which Toyota owns 60 percent equity. The first generation lithium-ion batteries were developed in-house by Toyota Research and Development, and a dedicated battery development team is already working on the next battery “beyond lithium.”

Panasonic is in the process of buying Sanyo, subject to anti-trust scrutiny, which will extend its market share leadership and add auto OEM customers such as Ford.

In 2012, Toyota will also start selling the less expensive 2-door FT-EV, a pure battery electric car. This little car will probably be similar to the IQ concept car that it has shown for a few years. In the U.S. in 2012 Toyota will face intense EV competition with Nissan, Ford, and dozens of innovative younger companies such as Tesla.

Because hybrids cost more, some take years to make up for the added cost in fuel savings. Some of the performance and luxury models are never bought to save money. Rising oil prices and an improving economy will bring more people to hybrid cars. Toyota is determined to lead. It is auto show season. Look for more announcements in the months ahead.

Toyota Expands Hybrid Car Models is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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Duke Energy’s Electric Vehicle Future

By John Addison (10/19/09). Duke Energy committed to an electric vehicle future when it committed with the FPL Group to buy 10,000 electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids in the coming decade, as they upgrade their fleets. The energy storage in these vehicles could eliminate the need for peaking plants and enable the expanded use of renewable energy. Duke Energy’s electric vehicle future may save billions in future power plant investments.

On October 10, Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK) CEO Jim Rogers shared a few minutes discussing electric vehicles and future strategy with me before he spoke at the Society for Environmental Journalist Conference. At first his commitments to electric vehicles, energy efficiency, and renewable energy seem surprising, given that he is CEO of the nation’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The emissions are largely the result of being the nation’s third biggest consumer of coal. He does not hide Duke’s emissions, instead he puts the issue right up front and talks about the future where Duke will replace all power plants between now and 2050.

First, let’s look at the commitment to 10,000 electric vehicles made with FPL at the latest Clinton Global Initiative (CGI). The $600 million investment over 10 years has more to do with good business than PR. Vehicle operations impact the earnings of any utility. Hybrid trouble trucks are already cutting fuel cost in half, as they use hybrid batteries to run lifts and auxiliaries for hours. Clean Fleet Report of PG&E. Plug-in hybrids would cut fuel more. Mr. Rogers stated, “We need to wean our country from dependency on oil.”

“A 10-year commitment gives us time to adopt, test and integrate new technology into fleets as a wider range of vehicles are developed,” said Jim Rogers at the CGI. “Currently, the only near-term options for available PEV supply are sedans, minivans, vans and a few bucket trucks. Over a 10-year horizon, it is expected that options will be available for most utility service categories.”

Electric vehicles including plug-in hybrids can be charged at night when there is excess electricity available. That electricity costs far less than gasoline and diesel. Duke Energy has 634 megawatts (MW) of land-based wind energy in Pennsylvania, Texas and Wyoming and another 99 MW under construction. An additional 251 MW of wind projects scheduled to begin operation in 2010. Siemens is one beneficiary of Duke’s renewable expansion. Duke even plans to lead in a pilot of offshore wind in North Carolina. Offshore wind has benefited Denmark, providing electricity for longer hours than land-based and more renewable energy during peak demand hours. This December, global leaders will see the wind towers in Copenhagen Harbor as the leaders discuss climate solutions.

In a 1993 annual report, Mr. Rogers was ahead of other utility leaders in stating, “We must turn our attention to carbon.” Jim Rogers has been active in climate meetings leading up to Copenhagen including co-founding US-CAP, chairing the Edison Institute who supported Waxman-Markey, and as a Copenhagen climate counselor. Rogers sees it as unlikely that Congress will deliver a bill before Copenhagen, yet Duke’s CEO feels that business leaders can achieve significant progress. His progress in diversifying Duke away from coal and oil dependency is one example. Working with China is another.

“What I admire about China is the mindset of can-do,” said Duke Energy CEO Jim Rogers, who at CGI announced a joint technology development deal with Chinese energy giant ENN Group encompassing solar, biofuels, smart grid, efficiency, carbon-capturing algae and other areas. “They’re not looking for excuses as to why we can’t do something.” Clinton Global Initiative (CGI) Quotations from Clint Wilder’s report at Clean Edge

The recession has given utility executives some breathing room by reducing electricity demand. Electricity consumption in the U.S. fell reports the EIA. Coal usage dropped 13 percent in one year. Nuclear is off 2 percent. Net generation from wind sources was 18 percent higher and was the second largest absolute increase after natural gas. New drilling techniques make natural gas cheap and plentiful.

Duke wants coal power with carbon capture and sequestration (CSS) to be a big part of its future generation. After 20 years of experiments, “clean coal” is still largely non-existent. No doubt that coal can be captured. It can even be sequestered, at least for years. There is no evidence, however, that coal with carbon sequestering can economically compete with natural gas plants. “Clean coal” takes significant extra coal, capital expenditure, pipelining of CO2 and finding a willing oil company or cavern owner to store the greenhouse gas. Coal mining causes environmental damage and release of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more destructive than CO2. Duke wants to bet on coal, yet it may find difficulty getting taxpayer or rate payer support for the added billions for CSS. For baseload power, natural gas would be cheaper, but natural gas prices have fluctuated wildly in the past years.

Utility executives want predictable pricing to make the best decisions about investing in power plants that may run for 40 years. Predicable pricing is one reason that Duke supports cap-and-trade. Rogers does not see cap-and-trade as hurting Duke or the U.S. economy. Rogers states, “We run our business as if COP-15 is in the rearview mirror.” A price for carbon is assumed in all Duke decision making.

Most promising for Duke, may be energy efficiency and renewable energy. Duke, like many utilities, has experimented with supporting electric vehicles. In partnership with Progress Energy, Duke is piloting drawing energy from vehicles during peak hours (V2G) using GridPoint technology. The key is to shape charging demand off-peak. Rogers feels that “variable pricing to shape demand is quite doable.” If successful, V2G could lower Duke’s investment in frequency management, spinning reserves, and peak generation.

It will be a smart grid that manages efficiency, demand management, critically needed distributed generation, and electric vehicles. Echelon, Cisco, and GridPoint, are some of the suppliers for smart grid hardware and software for Duke. Renewables include wind, solar, woody biomass

“Water is going to be the next oil.” stated Rogers. Global warming is already correlated with draughts, loss of water storage in snow, and agricultural losses in Duke’s North Carolina headquarters state and in its multi-state service area. Although coal, nuclear, and natural gas are water intensive, wind and solar are not.

Jim Rogers is looking to the future, “We are in most transformative period in history of power industry.” He recognizes that challenges and opportunities are different in this 21st Century.  Duke Annual Report Summary

Top 10 Electric Car Makers

Duke Energy’s Electric Vehicle Future is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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Bright IDEA lighter than Prius

By John Addison (2/15/10 updated; original 10/5/09).

A growing number are eager to buy plug-in hybrids from Toyota, Chevy, Ford, Fisker, and others that are completing new manufacturing for 2010 orders and serious competition in 2011. Oil prices have doubled from their low this year. People are planning to save on fuel for years, by using more inexpensive electricity and less gasoline.

Fuel costs millions for the delivery and service fleets that bring us our mail and goods and keep our cities running. About one million new vans are purchased annually in North America.

For years, the United States Postal Service (USPS) has piloted electric vehicles in its fleet of over 200,000 delivery vehicles. Azure created custom electric vehicles for the post office.

Ford is starting to take orders from municipalities and other government agencies that will use the new Transit Connect light-duty van in a variety of applications from city maintenance to on-demand transit. Deliveries of these electric vehicles will start by the end of 2010. Transit Connect may also do well with small businesses and local delivery fleets. Clean Fleet Ford Report

South Coast Air Quality Management District has helped fleets achieve significant mileage gains with Sprinter Vans converted to be plug-in hybrid.

The electric utilities that will help power these plug-ins often have thousands of vehicles in their fleet. Utilities have turned to companies like Eaton to double the mileage of their trouble trucks with hybrid and plug-in hybrid drive systems. Ford F550s were first converted into hybrids and now into plug-in hybrid trouble trucks. In addition to using less diesel fuel, these trucks can run all their accessories electrically. Previously, they had to idle the truck engine for hours to host a repair technician into the air, to run repair equipment, and all auxiliaries. Clean Fleet PG&E Report

The Eaton hybrid-electric drive system will be used in 138 FedEx delivery vans. In New York alone, FedEx deployed 48 E700 Eaton hybrids. Clean Fleet FedEx Report Local delivery vans can particularly benefit in fuel savings by capturing braking energy with frequent stops, by establishing a central charging infrastructure, and by having mid-day opportunities for recharging in between morning pick-ups and afternoon deliveries.

Eaton Corporation’s truck and electrical businesses will support a $45.4 million grant to develop a fully integrated plug-in hybrid systems for Class 2 to 5 vehicles, weighing up to 19,500 pounds. A demonstration fleet of 378 plug-in hybrid trucks and shuttle buses will be put into use. Green Car Congress

Plug-in vans and trucks can have a major impact on U.S. oil dependency. Federal, state, and local fleets own 4 million vehicles. Corporations have bigger total fleets. There is great interest in extending the electric-range of vehicles. Most attention has been placed on battery improvements. A more practical way to extend range is to make vehicles more aerodynamic and lighter.

Bright Automotive wants to make 50,000 plug-in hybrid vans per year that are built from the ground-up to deliver 100 mpg in a van that can carry 180 cubic feet of cargo. A typical van carrying such load might achieve 15 mpg. This spin-off of the Rocky Mountain Institute has major strategic partners including Alcoa, Johnson-Controls, and Google. The Bright IDEA van weighs only 3,200 pounds, less than a Prius, and can go 30 miles on battery power alone. It will be stronger than steel, yet built with light-weight aluminum and composite material like the Tesla. With a sub-.3 drag coefficient, the van only needs a 10 kWh lithium battery pack. In demanding delivery applications, each Bright IDEA could save $6,000 per year in fuel.

Bright is currently doing a project for the U.S. Department of Defense that involves converting a VW Transporter to be a plug-in hybrid. Bright hopes to secure a federal loan to build a manufacturing plant in Indiana to build the new light aerodynamic vans in volume.

Fleets are taking the lead in energy security and reduced emissions with fleets of hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and electric vehicles.

Delivery and Service Vans Plug-in is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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By Greg Dalton (8/20/09). General Motors has been in the headlines just about every day lately, with mostly positive news for a change. Last week, to mark 30 days since it emerged from bankruptcy as the “New GM,” Vice Chairman Bob Lutz took the stage at the company’s design center near Detroit to talk up the prospects for the slimmed down automaker. The image was much like the one above, with Lutz standing in front of a Chevy Volt.

Lutz told the audience of auto enthusiasts he welcomed the auto industry oversight panel, saying “finally we have someone to talk to” who understands the industry, adding he hoped it continues after GM pays back the $50 billion taxpayer bailout.

When it came to questions, I raised my hand and asked him if he still believes global warming is a croc. He said, “I hoped that question wouldn’t come up,” and then launched into a 3 minute explanation of why he doesn’t believe the global consensus of scientists embodied in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But, he said, those views were his personal opinion and don’t reflect company policy or the products it decides to build.

Lutz, who is credited with igniting the SUV craze by championing the original Ford Explorer while he worked at that crosstown rival, is a legend in the car business and has tremendous sway in side the company. When he finished answering questions a GM press person came scrambling over to say his views are the subject of debate within the company and there are internal controls to make sure he doesn’t steer the company astray.

That may be but it is still strange to have a global warming denier as the front man for an automaker rising from the ashes and trying to remake itself as a company relevant in the era of climate change. A former Marine, Lutz speaks his mind and no one in the company seems able or willing to try to reign him in.

Next the group was taken to tour the Volt practice assembly line, where auto workers are learning how to assemble the Volt, which is due to go on sale in the fall of 2010.

It was convincing evidence that, contrary to what some skeptics say, GM really will build these electric cars even though it will lose money on each unit initially, as Toyota did with its groundbreaking Prius. The Volt will sell for around $40,000 less a $7,500 federal tax credit.

Some eighty percent of Americans drive less than 40 miles a day and for those people Lutz says “The biggest problem you’ll have is figuring out what to do with the extra gas in your tank.” That serial hybrid technology definitely is a leapfrog over the Prius, which is constantly switching back and forth between battery and gasoline power. Stil, GM and all US automakers are clearly playing catchup to Japanese car companies when it comes to hybrids and battery technology.

On a trip to the GM Heritage Center I viewed evidence that it didn’t have to be this way. Inside the building the size of a basketball arena there are dozens of sleek and shiny cars from GM’s heyday as the pinnacle of mass manufacturing. Over in one corner is an Electrovair II from 1966. That’s right, an electric car with a lead acid battery. And next to it is an Electrovan fuel cell vehicle from 1966. Those propulsion systems are still “experimental” at GM today.

If GM, and other automakers, had kept working on those technologies the past forty years they almost certainly wouldn’t be in the predicament they are in today. Former CEO Rick Wagoner, who visited Climate One in May 2008, later said killing the Electric Car was the worst decision he ever made.

So far, it looks like GM has learned its lesson and is going full tilt on the Volt. The proof will be how much marketing money it puts behind the car and whether it ramps up production from the 10,000 units (some insiders say 25,000) it plans to build the first year. That’s a rounding error in the 8 million cars GM sold worldwide in 2008.

But its a start and, as GM executives are quick to say, it is up to consumers to buy them.

Volt is Real; Global Warming is Not says Lutz is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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Smart Charging Can Save

By Tom Bartley (9/21/09).

It’s not as simple as it first appears to know how much money it’ll take to feed a new plug-in. A modern efficient electric cars with braking regeneration will consume less than 300Wh/mile. The new all electric Nissan Leaf is claiming 100 mile range with a 24kWh battery. Taking into account the battery losses, that’s excellent performance at less than 240Wh/mile. In terms of miles-per-gallon (mpg), as calculated by the GM Volt people, the Nissan Leaf achieves infinite mpg because it doesn’t use one drop of gasoline.

But really, you say, how do I compare out of pocket costs and real energy consumption? There are other perspectives, but have faith and follow along for an analysis to impress your friends.

The heat energy of gasoline is 36.6kWh/gallon, but the efficiency of a gasoline engine reduces this to about 10kWh/gallon in terms of the mechanical energy coming out of the engine. For a reasonable non plug-in high fuel economy car of 30 mpg that’s 30 miles per 10kWh or 366Wh/mile, also pretty good performance. In terms of energy efficiency the power company does a bit better in delivering the kWh energy than does the gasoline engine of my car. The picture is even better when energy security and greenhouse gas reductions are considered.

Note: I’m describing my around town commuter needs here, not any long distance trips. Batteries and energy storage are still a long way from coming close to the energy density of liquid fuel. I’ll discuss range anxiety and battery life in a future post.

Now watch closely; this is the part that matters. How much of my spendable cash is going for fuel to move me and my car down the street?

For a non plug-in at $3.00/gallon and 30mpg, I’m spending 10¢/mile.

For a plug-in at 13¢/kWh base rate charging and 0.24kWh/mile, I’m spending 3.12¢/mile.

The plug-in wins hands down and the margin gets even wider if I happen to live in an area with cheaper electricity. For a frequently used national average number of about 8¢/kWh, I’m only spending 1.92¢/mile.

Before you plug-in fans start clapping and cheering, did you notice the slight of hand? Here is more of the story. What is “base rate charging”?

For most of the 138 million electric energy consumers in the country the electric utility company reads the meter once a month and sends out a bill. Everyone pays the same price, the base rate, for the first kWh after the meter reading.
However, if a lot of electricity is used during the month, such as for air conditioning in the summer or heating in the winter, the price of the last kWh before the meter reading could be 3 or 4 times higher than the first kWh. This is called tiered rate tariffs and is analogous to the graduated income tax rate. The more electricity used the more charged per kWh.

The cost to the utility of generating power varies during the day as extra assets are brought on line to meet the demand. To cover the extra cost the utility companies use the monthly tiered rate pricing structure as approved by the Public Utility Commission (PUC) in each state. The monthly tiered rate pricing doesn’t match up well with the daily cost variations.

Charging my plug-in vehicle would accelerate the higher rate tiered rate tariff and by the end of the month, using the numbers from above, I could be paying 6¢ to 13¢/mile for my plug-in.

The solution is Time-Of-Use (TOU) pricing. Smart meters provide the technology for TOU pricing to match the daily cost variations and the utilities love it!  8.3 million (6% of the meter population) of these meters are already installed nationwide and my utility, SDG&E, is planning for TOU pricing to start in 2011. In fact, a smart meter is integral to the new charging units being installed at home, work, and other locations. If I take delivery of a Nissan Leaf in 2010 I can probably get TOU pricing early.

So now I can have some real choices for how much I have to pay to fuel my electric car just like I have choices for which gas station to use to fill my tank. Ideally, I will do all my charging in the middle of the night for the lowest base rate. The computers in the car and the charging system can take care of that. Again the utilities love it because they don’t have to worry about adding assets to meet my demand.
I’m also thinking about doing a little arbitrage, using the battery in my car to store cheap energy and use it in my house when the grid energy is expensive. More about this in a future post. In the next post I’ll also discuss charging issues, maintenance, and intangibles.

You probably caught that I didn’t talk about the cost of replacing my battery.  I’ll cover that more in a future post, but here’s a hint – the battery will probably last at least 10 years for over 100,000 driving miles.  Present cost estimates are about $300/kWh or $7200 for the Nissan Leaf which adds 7.2¢/mile to the cost of operating my plug-in, but again, it “ain’t” that simple.  Stay tuned.

The Plug-in Energy Diet is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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2011 Buick Plug-in Hybrid

(8/31/09) On August 6, 2009, General Motors announced a new plug-in hybrid Buick crossover vehicle for 2011. GM Press Release. Next year Chrysler will start taking orders for its Jeep Wrangler. Ford has its Ford Escape Plug-in Hybrid in trails with over 20 fleets and may offer a commercial version in 2012. GM planned to compete with its own SUV Plug-in.

Yet less than 2 weeks later, it appeared that the Buick PHEV is dead according to a post at gm-volt.com.

Last year, GM was to be selling a plug-in hybrid Saturn VUE. With battery and product delays, then the sale of Saturn to Penske, the VUE PHEV never happened.

A Buick crossover was to launch in late 2010, followed in 2011 by the plug-in hybrid model.

The new five-passenger crossover was to have been powered by an Ecotec 2.4L direct-injected four-cylinder engine with an optional 3.0L direct-injected V-6. The proposed drive system may yet find its way into a future GM offering. The cancelled 2-Mode Hybrid was to have used 8 kWh LG Chem lithium-ion battery cells and charging technology developed for GM’s Voltec system, which GM hopes to debut in the Chevrolet Volt  in late 2010.

The proposed GM’s 2-Mode plug-in hybrid system would have used any combination of electric or gasoline engine power to move the vehicle, depending on the driving conditions, in contrast to the Volt’s series hybrid system. In addition to the lithium-ion battery pack, the cancelled Buick plug-in hybrid’s powertrain would have used two  electric motors and an efficient direct-injected 3.6L V-6 flex-fuel engine.

As GM struggles to recover from bankruptcy, perhaps it has simply decided to focus on one plug-in at a time.

GM SUV PHEV to compete with Chrysler and Ford? is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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Customers Control Smart Charging of Ford EV

By John Addison (updated 10/15/09; original 8/24/09).

Ford is now taking orders for electric cars. By 2011, the Ford Motor Company will start taking orders for the new Ford Focus EV. Beyond 2011, Ford will offer the popular Focus in a variety of affordable options including hybrid-electric (HEV), plug-in hybrid (PHEV), and battery electric-vehicle (EV).

Although Nissan will take an early lead with EVs, and GM will beat Ford to market with a plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt, Ford will be fighting for market leadership with both electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

The Ford EV roadmap in this article is based on my interviews with Susan Cischke, Ford Group Vice President, Mike Tinskey, Plug-in 2009 Conference presentations, and my discussions with some of Ford’s utility partners.

2010 orders are likely to come from municipalities and other government agencies that will use the new Transit Connect light-duty van in a variety of applications from city maintenance to on-demand transit. Deliveries of these electric vehicles, made for Ford by Smith Electric Vehicles, will start in 2010. Transit Connect may also do well with small businesses and local delivery fleets.

It is the Ford Focus EV that captures the imagination of mainstream Americans eager to secure a zero-emission vehicle that they can take on freeways and travel up to 100 miles between charges. The new Ford Focus EV will be a 4-door sedan that seats five.

The Focus EV will be made in America. The sedan will travel 75 miles per charge with a 23kWh lithium-ion tri-metal battery. Ford has expressed a preference for a battery whose cells that are made in America. Ford’s final battery decision may be influenced by federal funding.

Ford is investing $550 million to transform its Michigan Assembly Plant into a lean, green and flexible manufacturing complex that will build Ford’s next-generation Focus global small car along with a new battery-electric version of the Focus for the North American market. Both will be based on a new global C platform. The EV is being developed in partnership with Magna International.

“The transformation of Michigan Assembly Plant embodies the larger transformation under way at Ford,” said Ford President and CEO Alan Mulally. “This is about investing in modern, efficient and flexible American manufacturing. It is about fuel economy and the electrification of vehicles. It is about leveraging our expertise and vehicle platforms around the world…”

Ford will offer a plug-in hybrid in 2012. It has not yet announced the model. Ford’s first plug-in hybrid  may be the Focus PHEV or the Escape Hybrid or both. A Ford Fusion PHEV could also be announced in 2012. Johnson Controls – SAFT is Ford’s lithium battery supplier for the first commercial plug-in hybrid (PHEV). Ford PHEV Press Releases

A Ford Focus PHEV is planned. It will be a blended hybrid using only an 8 to 13kWh lithium battery pack in contrast with the Chevy Volt series hybrid which will use 16kWh battery pack. All new Ford hybrid and plug-in hybrids will be blended parallel.

Ford can profit from the economies of scale by having common platforms for global vehicles and offering customers options which including engine powered, hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid, and electric-vehicle. In a succession of announcements, Ford will make the Focus available in all of these configurations. By 2013, more than 90% of Ford’s new North American lineup will be available with EcoBoost technology.

Ford has been actively testing the plug-in hybrid Ford Escape with a number of utilities and partners. These tests have helped establish the standards necessary for electric vehicle success, such as the J1772 electrical connection that will be standard on Ford EVs.

Thanks to a new DOE award of $30 million, 50/50 matched, a total of $60 million will go into expanded deployment of Ford plug-in hybrids, electric vehicles, and infrastructure. Early pilots of the Ford Focus EV are likely to be part of this.

Ford did not receive its dream funding which would have been $250 million so that it could put 700 plug-ins (both EV and PHEV) into utilities and fleet tests. Ford wanted to pilot a mix of 700 vehicles including the Focus EV, a PHEV, Transit Connect, and E450 (Azure).

The new electric vehicles are smart EVs.  Customers will be provided with charging options to save money. Drivers will be connected with traffic and location services and assisted with electronics that make driving safer. Passengers will have more information and entertainment options than ever. Like the new smartphones from Apple, Blackberry, Palm and others, the value of a full value of a smart car is in the networks. Just as smartphones can be purchased at a discount with network subscriptions, we may see similar offerings from car makers and their partners.

Subscription models are being explored where vehicles like the Ford Focus EV could be purchased, with the lithium battery and charging being offered as a subscription. Ford, Nissan, and other automakers are discussing such possibilities with electric utilities, financial institutions and others. Should a utility or JV own the batteries, then it would be easier to repurpose lithium batteries into less demanding stationary power back-up applications after the batteries decline in charge after several years of use.

Possibilities include 50/50 joint ventures and long-term secure financing. Because utilities are regulated, public utility commissions will be involved in approving new business models. If everyone gets there act together, which is certainly an “if,” the customer could be a big winner with an affordable EV and subscription offerings that cost less than monthly gasoline costs.

Under the leadership of CEO Alan Mulally, Ford has shown a new flexibility in partnering with suppliers, vehicle integrators, battery JV, electric utilities, financial institutions, and even information technology firms like Microsoft. With global platforms, richer partnerships, greater speed to market, hybrid cars, and electric cars, customers will see some interesting new offerings in the next two years.

Top 10 Electric Car Makers

Ford Plans both Electric Vehicles and Plug-in Hybrids is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) and Battery Electric Vehicles (EV) are destined for success. Thousands of key players have converged at the Plug-in 2009 Conference in Long Beach, California. In the opening workshop they talked about giving the customer a pleasant, easy-to-use, no hassle, safe and cost effective experience.  The key players included auto makers, electric utilities, and community leaders who are installing thousands of vehicle charging stations.

President Obama has challenged the industry to sell or lease 1,000,000 PHEV & EV by 2015. This is an a challenge for the United States which currently has about 40,000 electric vehicles on our road, with less than 2,000 able to sustain freeway speeds. The race is on, however, as majors bring vehicles to market that can travel for 40 to 200 miles on an electric charge, not on foreign oil. The PHEV and EV makers include GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota, Tesla, BMW, Subaru, Mitsubishi, Smart, Think, and many others.

Given the potential for energy security, a climate solution, and lowering monthly fuel costs, who would want to stop this? Who could? A terrorist needing oil money? An oil executive? A conspiring auto maker? None of the above. The biggest concern is that the number one “speed bump” will be bureaucracy. Enid Joffe with Clean Fuel Connection was in the middle of the first wave of installing 7,500 chargers and in the current challenges of installing chargers from BMW’s MiniE.

Her customers have been caught in the catch-22 of the utility not approving charger installation without a city permit and the city refusing a permit without utility approval. A process that should take a few days and cost a few hundred dollars can take 45 days and cost thousands:

o    Apply for license (in person in some locations, online in others)
o    Proof of insurance
o    City Permit to installer (much easier if charger is a legally categorized as an appliance)
o    Utility Contract review
o    Electrician installs adapter
o    Utility returns to install separate meter

To encourage EV adoption, the City of New York has created a streamline process.

Fleet investment can be significant. They must often add electrical infrastructure, such as expanded switchboards and dedicated circuits.

EV adoption will accelerate if consumers can comfortably deal with one point of contact with a friendly website and friendly people. Easy installation and a modest added charge on their utility bill would be most desirable. It is encouraging that all the stakeholders recognize this and are negotiating solutions.

Also encouraging is common charging plugs, interfaces, and communication protocols. Over 10,000 charging stations are being planned for installation in the U.S. at major employers, busy city streets, busy garages, shopping malls, universities, and other places where people are likely to use their electric vehicles.

Many vehicles are not parked in garages. They are parked in carports, driveways, apartment parking lots, fleet parking lots, and on city streets. As GM readies introduction of its Chevy Volt, it demonstrated a 25-foot cable connector that it will provide with the vehicle. Yes, it will work outside. Getting it wet does not hurt it, or anyone standing in the wet. It adheres to new standards such as SAE J1772 so that it will work with any of the standard charging stations being installed. It communicates, so that a driver cannot forget and drive off while still plugged-in. Little details. Attention to the little details can make us optimistic about a driving future that is increasingly electric.

John Addison is reporting from Plug-in 2009 in Long Beach, California. California is currently home to 25,000 electric vehicles. Several thousand new charging stations are planned for 2010.

Electric Vehicle Charging Passes Inspection is a post from: Clean Fleet Report

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